Hey there #Hashtaggers! Long time no blog. We’re back today with some analysis of the Election Night results for the 2019 City Council primary! I was able to use my world famous #CentristDataMining skills to put these election results on a map, so y’all loyal readers can make your own conclusions and analysis. Before we begin, I want to warn all of you that these results are preliminary – they only include the first ballot drops from August 6th, so subsequently counted votes aren’t reflected in these maps. For all maps, I’m coloring each precinct based on the percent the top vote getter of the district earned. The colors are in quintiles, where the darker colors are a higher quintile. Hopefully that made sense! If not, tweet at me and I can explain further.
If you want a more in depth (and frankly, more expert) viewpoint on the election, definitely check out Michael’s #Hashtag post from yesterday.
So, with that out of the way, let’s look at some maps! (Find the link to each map by clicking on the district headers)
Not too much interesting here – with Herbold locking up such a large plurality of votes, she won most precincts. Like you’ll see in most of the districts, the low-density costal areas will skew towards the more conservative candidates. You can see Herbold doing well in the Urban Villages of West Seattle, like in Delridge and the Junctions.
Herbold clearly has almost an assured reelection victory – just keep the course and keep collecting the votes in the Urban Villages
Oh man, Tammy Morales killed it! District 2 has by far the fewest number of registered voters among all the districts, yet Morales (is it too late to call her Councilmember Morales yet?) has clinched over half the votes in the latest tally as of the publication of this piece. She did better than any incumbent!
Her base of support is concentrated around the population centers of D2 – Columbia City, Beacon Hill. Interestingly, she did not do as well near the further south light rail stations of Othello and Rainier Valley, where Porter seemed to do a bit better. She’ll definitely want to turn out those voters come November.
Sawant did well here, though she came out as the worst performing incumbent anywhere in the city. Orion’s base of support is on the lakeshores of D3, while Sawant’s base is centered around 12th and 15th Aves on the Hill. The Central District seems mostly split, with some precincts splitting votes between Sawant, Orion, and the other candidates.
Sawant has a clear pathway to victory here – turnout core Capitol Hill renters in November, while Orion either needs to persuade renters he’s the best choice, or else find a way to get every household on the east side of the district.
This is the starkest map of the lot. With Pederson clinching so much of the vote on election night, and Scott doing relatively well in subsequent drops, this is likely to change when the full dataset comes out.
Pederson did very well overall. He killed in the northeast single-family neighborhoods and did relatively well in Wallingford and Eastlake. Scott and the other candidates did decently in the core University District/Roosevelt area, but looking at this map, it appears Pederson has the best path forward, unless the challenger can get University students to show up and vote in November.
If you look at the turnout in 2017, you can see that the precincts of the University have the lowest turnout, so getting students to vote – let alone register – would be a gamechanger for the socialist candidate here.
Debora “D5” Juarez got close to a majority in the district. Again, the conservative challenger here did well in the ritzy part of D5, while the more progressive candidate did well in the urban villages. I don’t know too much about D5, but what’s going on in Haller Lake? It’s the one hole in the middle of D5 that broke for Sattler.
Councilwoman Juarez has an easy path to victory here. Keep turning out the Urban Village voters, and let the single family homeowners do what they must.
My district! Downtown Ballard is Strauss country – he is “Ballard’s paperboy” after all. He ended up crushing it in Fremont and around Greenlake too. The path to victory for Strauss is plain – just stay the course, and keep the momentum going.
Wills did well in the Northeast… and that’s about it.
Oh Magnolia. That’s Pugel country, apparently. Queen Anne seems to be where Lewis really shined. Belltown, on the other hand, was split between Pugel and the other candidates.
District 7 seems like the most likely place where really any candidate can will. Both Lewis and Pugel need to get the undecided Belltown and Downtown voters – they appear the be the swing constituency for the November general.
And that’ll do it for this edition for the #Hashtag! Did I miss anything? Are there any other maps you’d like to see? Let me know via Twitter or Facebook.